Russia: COVID-19 influenced GDP growth 2020-2021

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic aggravated with a drastic drop in crude oil prices will cost a negative growth domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020 in Russia, according to every forecast scenario. If the effects of the crisis persist throughout the whole 2021 year (a negative scenario), the GDP is expected to grow at a 1-1.5 percent rate in 2021.

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Estimated gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia in view of coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, by stress scenario*

Characteristic	2020	2021
Severe****	-6%	1%
Negative***	-4%	1.5%
Moderate**	-2%	2%

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Release date

March 2020

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

March 2020

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the severe scenario estimates that the critical phase of the crisis to last through the whole 2020, with the negative trend continuing until the end of 2021. Under such setting, the losses of the banking sector can be comparable to that of 2008.

The negative scenario implies that the critical phase of the crisis will end after the first half of 2020, with the negative trend continuing for another year,

The moderate scenario will not lead to losses in the banking sector, but it will still require significant efforts from the players to maintain the quality of the portfolios. According to this scenario, the critical phase of the crisis and the negative manifestations will affect only 2020.

** GDP growth reate under the moderate scenario in 2021 is estimated 1.5-2%.
*** GDP growth rate under the negative scenario in 2021 is estimated 1-1.5%.
**** GDP growth rate under the severe scenario in 2020 is estimated at negative 6-7%.

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