According to a study, the global economy is expected to face a negative deviation in GDP growth due to climate change by the year 2048. The largest economies in Latin America are no exception: Mexico, for instance, is projected to experience a decrease of almost 0.6 percent in its real GDP, in a scenario where global temperatures increase by 4.1 degrees Celsius, compared to the baseline period from 1986 to 2005. In this same scenario, Colombia would face a decrease of almost one percent in its real GDP by 2048.
Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048
In case of a temperature rise of 4.1ºC compared to the baseline period*
Supplementary notes
* The hypothetical scenario was defined by the source as follows:
RCP 8.5. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 8.5 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 936 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 4.1°C over the base period.
Other types of scenarios were excluded from this statistic.
Base period: 1986 to 2005
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Moody's. (July 9, 2019). Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 13, 2024, from https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/
Moody's. "Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048." Chart. July 9, 2019. Statista. Accessed November 13, 2024. https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/
Moody's. (2019). Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 13, 2024. https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/
Moody's. "Deviation of Real Gdp from Baseline Due to Climate Change in Selected Countries in Latin America by Q4 2048." Statista, Statista Inc., 9 Jul 2019, https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/
Moody's, Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048 Statista, https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/ (last visited November 13, 2024)
Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in selected countries in Latin America by Q4 2048 [Graph], Moody's, July 9, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www-statista-com.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/statistics/1071237/latin-america-deviation-real-gdp-climate-change-country/
