How Will Trump's Conviction Affect His Election Chances?

On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The verdict, which Trump has promised to appeal, adds a historical dimension to the upcoming presidential election, as it will be the first time that a presidential candidate – one with good prospects at that – will be a convicted felon.

The obvious question following Trump’s conviction was: how will the jury’s verdict affect his chances of returning to the White House? Considering that there is no precedent and that Trump and his supporters have framed the trial as politically motivated from the beginning, there is no clear answer. While some moderate Republicans might have their reservations about voting for a convicted felon, Trump’s base, the so-called MAGA Republicans could well be galvanized by what they consider a witch hunt against the former president.

According to a survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of The Economist in the days leading up to the verdict, Americans are once again divided on the question of whether a conviction will have a positive or negative effect on Trump’s reelection bid. While 31 of Republicans and those leaning Republican think that a conviction will have a positive effect on Trump’s chance in November, another 34 percent don’t expect it to have any effect at all. At the other end of the political spectrum, 48 percent of likely Democratic voters think the verdict will hurt Trump’s chances of being reelected, with 29 percent saying there will be no effect and 11 percent thinking it may benefit him.

While Trump came out swinging after the verdict, calling the trial “rigged” and “disgraceful” and saying that “the real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people”, the Biden camp welcomed the decision but also referred to election day as the ultimate trial. "In New York today, we saw that no one is above the law," Biden campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said in a statement. “There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box.”