Tesla Suffers First Y-o-Y Drop in Deliveries Since Covid

Tesla’s deliveries fell short of Wall Street expectations in the first quarter of 2024, as the company delivered 386,810 vehicles worldwide versus expectations in the range of 450,000. The latest figure not only marks a significant drop from the 484,507 vehicles delivered in Q4 2023, but, more concerningly for investors, it also marks the first year-over-year decline in deliveries since the second quarter of 2020, when production was severely disrupted by Covid lockdowns.

"While we were anticipating a bad Q1, this was an unmitigated disaster that is hard to explain away," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note shortly after the report's release. Tesla cited the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at its Fremont factory as well as factory shutdowns resulting from Red Sea shipping diversions and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin as reasons for the decline in production and delivery volumes, so investors will be looking for a rebound in both metrics three months from now.

As our chart illustrates, there have been remarkably few setbacks in Tesla's rapid production and delivery ramp-up over the past few years. After Elon Musk had unveiled the mass-market Model 3 in 2016, pre-orders quickly exceeded the number of cars Tesla had built in its lifetime, leading to questions of whether the company could actually meet the demand. Last year, it delivered 1.8 million vehicles to customers - 30 percent more than it did between 2012 and 2020 combined.