How Decisive Are Iowa and New Hampshire in the Primaries?

Following Donald Trump’s convincing 30-point win in last week’s Iowa caucuses and Ron DeSantis’ decision to drop out of the race and endorse the former president, it looks like Tuesday’s Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire is Trump’s to lose.

According to the latest CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center on January 19, Trump holds 50 percent support among likely GOP voters in the state, leading his closest competitor and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley by 11 percentage points. Florida Gov. DeSantis stood at just 6 percent in the poll, which was conducted before he announced the end of his presidential bid on Sunday. Assuming that many of his supporters follow his endorsement and support Trump going forward, the former president’s lead could be even bigger than the latest poll indicates.

If the results from New Hampshire actually go Trump’s way, he would be the first non-incumbent Republican candidate to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states often considered crucial in the presidential primaries as they host the first contests in the nomination process. Winning in Iowa and/or New Hampshire can make or break a candidate’s momentum and many presidential bids have hit an early wall in either of the two states.

As our chart shows, the majority of Democratic and Republican candidates who won in Iowa and/or New Hampshire went on to win their party’s presidential ticket. Since 1972, 9 out of 13 Democratic winners in the Iowa caucuses won the nomination, while 7 out of 12 Republican winners did the same. New Hampshire appears to be even more decisive in the race for the Republican candidacy, as 11 out of 13 Republican winners in the state’s primary elections won the nomination since 1972. For Democratic candidates, the New Hampshire results aren’t quite as important, with “just” 7 out of 13 winners ending up winning the Democratic nomination.