Asia's Predictions for 2024

A survey among Nikkei Asia readers shows what events respondents from the region find most likely to occur in 2024. In the eyes of three quarters of Asians, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is sure to extend his time in office in a year that observers have called one of the most important for elections ever. But respondents were even more sure that the Japanese leadership would be forced to abandon its zero interest policy after almost a decade of negative rates. While in Europe and the U.S., the legacy of the global financial crisis of 2008 has been left behind, Japan has refused to follow suit despite the global inflation crisis. The country might be an outlier in terms of consumer price increases - due to businesses' timid growth strategies and companies and consumers rejecting price increases alike - but 2024 might be the year the facade finally cracks.

Another three quarters of respondents to the Nikkei survey see China's GDP growth continuing to stay behind former boom years. Less popular but still intriguing predictions for Asia's 2024 include North Korea's first nuclear test since 2017 and China debuting a 5-nanometer chip after August's reveal of the Chinese 7-nanometer chip caused a sensation. Both events are thought likely by 57 percent of respondents.

Around half of survey takers predict that Chinese electric car maker BYD will enter the U.S. market to challenge rival Tesla. In Q4 of 2023, the company shipped more EVs than Tesla for the first time - supporting the hunch of the respondents who answered the question in December before this information was revealed in early 2024. Somewhat fewer - around 45 percent - of respondents expect 2024 to see more legalizations of same-sex marriage in Asia. Out of all that found this likely, half expect new laws to be passed in Thailand, while 20 percent thought they would be introduced in Japan.

Another prediction for outside of Asia was made on the re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump in the super election year of 2024. More than 60 percent of Asian respondents believe Trump will prevail in November.