The Chinese Spy Balloon's Path Across North America

The debris of a Chinese surveillance balloon is being collected after it was shot down by U.S. military jets off the coast of South Carolina Saturday afternoon. The object had first entered U.S. airspace over Alaska on January 28 and then again over the continental U.S. on Tuesday, Jan. 31. A sighting over Montana on Wednesday afternoon kicked off what became a media frenzy over the weekend as the balloon made its way across the United States.

According to public information collected by open-source intelligence accounts TheIntelFrog and TieDyeIntel, the balloon was sighted in Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina and finally South Carolina, but also likely made its way across the states of Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kentucky. It is less likely but also possible that it traveled across Colorado, Iowa or Georgia. Due to the weather on location as well as the very high altitude that the balloon was traveling at – 50,000 to 70,000 feet compared to an airplane at usually 30,000-40,000 feet – it was not always spotted.

Pentagon officials said last week that they decided against shooting the balloon down over land after weighing the possibility of hurting someone with falling debris against any military threat the balloon could inflict by its information gathering, which was put at none. It is therefore still unclear what led to the balloon’s voyage across the United States. Both the U.S. and China have for many years gathered aerial footage of each other’s countries via satellite, a technology that is capable of delivering increasingly high-resolution imagery.

Chinese officials have meanwhile stated that the balloon’s journey was an accident and that is was in fact a piece of meteorological equipment. However, CNN reports that U.S. official have said the they are sure the balloon was designed as a surveillance tool. A second balloon spotted last week by Colombian and Costa Rican aviation authorities is allegedly of the same type, but according to the Chinese was on another accidental flight.

Theories to what the balloon could have been doing over the country include China testing U.S. counter-surveillance capabilities and reactions, as brought forward by ANI and Nikkei Asia. Through the balloon’s flight, China could have found out how and how fast the U.S. is detecting intrusions to its airspace and what its reaction to it is. The second part of this tactic could also include a psychological component. Chinese military planes are also known to repeatedly intrude into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, soliciting reactions from Taiwan. Russian also has a long history of similar behavior of fighter planes around NATO countries.